A Trial to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Rivaroxaban (COVID-19)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-03-29, after 2020-09-02 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: copdpulmonarychronicoxygensevere
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantcancercountchemotherapy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 153659 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 153659 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 14613 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- rivaroxaban
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Rivaroxaban to Reduce the Risk of Major Venous and Arterial Thrombotic Events, Hospitalization and Death in Medically Ill Outpatients With Acute, Symptomatic Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Infection NCT04508023 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
- Effect of Anticoagulation Therapy on Clinical Outcomes in COVID-19 NCT04416048 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
- Factor Xa Inhibitor Versus Standard of Care Heparin in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 (XACT) NCT04640181 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Safety and Tolerability of Emricasan in Symptomatic Outpatients Diagnosed With Mild-COVID-19 NCT04803227 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- Double-blind Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Antroquinonol in Mild-Moderate COVID-19 Hospitalized Patients NCT04523181 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.