Effect of Anticoagulation Therapy on Clinical Outcomes in COVID-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-07-20, after 2020-11-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerrandomizationtherapypatientactive
Phrases that lowered it: indexinvestigatordaylabelsubjects -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 46 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 237 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Keywords listed: 14 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 14 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 237 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 46 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 156096 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 14828 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- rivaroxaban
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Trial to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Rivaroxaban (COVID-19) NCT04504032 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Proxalutamide (GT0918) in Hospitalized COVID-19 Subjects NCT05009732 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
- Intravenous Zotatifin in Adults With Mild or Moderate COVID-19 NCT04632381 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- A First-In-Human Phase 1b Study of AmnioPul-02 in COVID-19 / Other LRTI NCT05348772 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
- A Study of LAM-002A for the Prevention of Progression of COVID-19 NCT04446377 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.