Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics Study of Elpipodect (MK-8189) in Participants With Schizophrenia and Healthy Participants (MK-8189-011)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (289 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilitytolerability andcarcinomamultiplethe safety
  Phrases that lowered it: healthymmhgparticipantsscreeningpharmacokinetics of
• Sponsor's past trials: 1293 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 130 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 9 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics Study of MK-8189 in Participants With Schizophrenia and in Healthy Participants (MK-8189-007) NCT03565068 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Long-term Safety and Tolerability of an Investigational Drug in People With Schizophrenia. NCT04115319 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Elpipodect (MK-8189) Multiple Dose Study in Healthy Volunteers and Schizophrenia Participants (MK-8189-003) NCT02181803 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of KarXT in Acutely Psychotic Hospitalized Adult Patients With Schizophrenia (EMERGENT-3) NCT04738123 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of KarXT in Acutely Psychotic Hospitalized Adult Patients With Schizophrenia (EMERGENT-2) NCT04659161 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.