Elpipodect (MK-8189) Multiple Dose Study in Healthy Volunteers and Schizophrenia Participants (MK-8189-003)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (289 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-04-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 1037 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilitytolerability pharmacokineticsnonand pharmacodynamicspharmacodynamics of
  Phrases that lowered it: participantshealthytrialvolunteersparticipant
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 135 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics Study of Elpipodect (MK-8189) in Participants With Schizophrenia and Healthy Participants (MK-8189-011) NCT04506905 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Elpipodect (MK-8189) in Participants With an Acute Episode of Schizophrenia (MK-8189-008) NCT04624243 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• An Active-Controlled Early Phase Study of Elpipodect (MK-8189) in Adults With Schizophrenia (MK-8189-005) NCT03055338 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• A Study of Elpipodect (MK-8189) in Participants With Schizophrenia (MK-8189-014) NCT05406440 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• A Trial of 15 and 30 mg Doses of CVL-231 (Emraclidine) in Participants With Schizophrenia NCT05227703 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.