Efficacy and Safety of Elpipodect (MK-8189) in Participants With an Acute Episode of Schizophrenia (MK-8189-008)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (269 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-06-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimerscorefollowinglimiteddementia
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsand safetysafety ofefficacy and
• Sponsor's past trials: 1308 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 126 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Active-Controlled Early Phase Study of Elpipodect (MK-8189) in Adults With Schizophrenia (MK-8189-005) NCT03055338 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Elpipodect (MK-8189) Multiple Dose Study in Healthy Volunteers and Schizophrenia Participants (MK-8189-003) NCT02181803 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics Study of Elpipodect (MK-8189) in Participants With Schizophrenia and Healthy Participants (MK-8189-011) NCT04506905 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Trial to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of GWP42003-P Versus Placebo as Adjunctive Therapy in Participants With Schizophrenia Experiencing Inadequate Response to Ongoing Antipsychotic Treatment NCT04421456 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate 3 Dose Levels of Luvadaxistat of Adults With Negative Symptoms of Schizophrenia NCT03382639 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.