EMPACT-MI: A Study to Test Whether Empagliflozin Can Lower the Risk of Heart Failure and Death in People Who Had a Heart Attack (Myocardial Infarction)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartfailuremyocardialinfarctionartery
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsindextype diabetestabletmedicine
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 56.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 96 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 623 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Test the Effect of Empagliflozin in Patients Who Are in Hospital for Acute Heart Failure NCT04157751 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Dapagliflozin Effects on Cardiometabolic Outcomes in Patients With an Acute Heart Attack. NCT04564742 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• This Study Tests Empagliflozin in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (HFrEF). The Study Looks at How Far Patients Can Walk in 6 Minutes and at Their Heart Failure Symptoms NCT03448419 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• This Study Tests Empagliflozin in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF). The Study Looks at How Far Patients Can Walk in 6 Minutes and at Their Heart Failure Symptoms. NCT03448406 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• A Study That Looks at the Function of the Heart in Patients With Heart Failure Who Take Empagliflozin NCT03332212 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.