Dapagliflozin Effects on Cardiometabolic Outcomes in Patients With an Acute Heart Attack.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomarandomizationpatientsmalignancy
  Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofevaluate theparticipantto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1644 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 158 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure. NCT03619213 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test the Effect of Empagliflozin in Patients Who Are in Hospital for Acute Heart Failure NCT04157751 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Impact of EMpagliflozin on Cardiac Function and Biomarkers of Heart Failure in Patients With Acute MYocardial Infarction NCT03087773 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• EMPACT-MI: A Study to Test Whether Empagliflozin Can Lower the Risk of Heart Failure and Death in People Who Had a Heart Attack (Myocardial Infarction) NCT04509674 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• EMPagliflozin outcomE tRial in Patients With chrOnic heaRt Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (EMPEROR-Preserved) NCT03057951 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.