9-month Study to Assess the Efficacy of Ofatumumab on Microglia in Patients With Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularmricellfailurecardiac
  Phrases that lowered it: effect ofthe effectaiminvestigatormultiple
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 81 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 382 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2523 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ofatumumab Subcutaneous Administration in Subjects With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01457924 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Open Label Randomized Multicenter to Assess Efficacy & Tolerability of Ofatumumab 20mg vs. First Line DMT in RMS NCT04788615 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Addition of Belimumab to B-cell Depletion in Relapsing-remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT04767698 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• A First Time in Human Study Exploring Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Pharmacodynamics (PD) of GSK2618960 in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) NCT01808482 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated
• Study to Assess Whether GSK239512 Can Remyelinate Lesions in Subjects With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01772199 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.