A Study of Cotadutide in Participants Who Have Chronic Kidney Disease With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartfailurecoronarybowelplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsvisitperiodtype diabetescriteria may
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 39.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1623 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 138 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Look at the Effect MEDI0382 Has on Blood Sugar in People With Type 2 Diabetes and Kidney Problems and Also to Check That MEDI0382 is Well Tolerated NCT03550378 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Study of MEDI0382 in Combination With Dapagliflozin and Metformin in Overweight/Obese Participants With Type 2 Diabetes NCT03444584 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability Study of Cotadutide in Japanese Obese Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Melitus NCT04208620 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Effect of MEDI0382 on Energy Balance in Overweight and Obese Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT03596177 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3, Randomized, Double-blind, Parallel-group, Comparative Study and a Phase 3, Multicenter, Open-label, Long-term Study of SYR-472 (25 mg) in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Complicated by Severe Renal Impairment or End-stage Renal Disease NCT02512068 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.