IMU-838 and Oseltamivir in the Treatment of COVID-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-09-21, after 2020-06-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ulndlheartuncontrolleddisease
Phrases that lowered it: evaluatescreeningvisitphysicalmale -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 90 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 17146 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1748 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 65.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- oseltamivir
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of IMU-838 as Addition to Investigator's Choice of Standard of Care Therapy, in Patients With Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) NCT04379271 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- A Clinical Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of SIM0417 Orally Co-Administered With Ritonavir in Symptomatic Adult Participants With Mild to Moderate COVID-19 NCT05506176 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- Investigating Otilimab in Patients With Severe Pulmonary COVID-19 Related Disease NCT04376684 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- A Trial to Investigate Recovery From COVID-19 With C21 in Adult Subjects NCT04880642 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Non-inferiority Trial on Treatments in Early COVID-19 NCT05321394 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.