Catalysing the Containment of COVID-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (81 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-08-12, after 2020-08-27 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diseasepatientsto severeprogressionpatient
Phrases that lowered it: hiv infectedeffectin hivinfluenzamild -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 39.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Maximum age: 120 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 43 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 6 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 120 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 43 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 2.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 422 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 129 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 39.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- nitazoxanide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- PHRU CoV01 A Trial of Triazavirin (TZV) for the Treatment of Mild-moderate COVID-19 NCT04581915 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
- The Nitazoxanide Plus Atazanavir for COVID-19 Study NCT04459286 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
- Non-inferiority Trial on Treatments in Early COVID-19 NCT05321394 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- Effects of Early Use of Nitazoxanide in Patients With COVID-19 NCT04552483 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Combination Therapies to Reduce Carriage of SARS-Cov-2 and Improve Outcome of COVID-19 in Ivory Coast: a Phase Randomized IIb Trial NCT04466241 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.