Comparative Study of Two Topical Anesthetics Prior to Fractional Nonablative Laser Treatment of the Face

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject haskidneymust agreewomen ofpotential
  Phrases that lowered it: facetopicalsubjectsfacialcream
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 47.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: supportive care (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1113 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 176288 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 246 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 6 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy of a Topical Anesthetic Containing Lidocaine and Prilocaine in Treatment With CO2 Fractional Laser NCT03366246 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Lidocaine and Tetracaine Cream for Facial Laser Aesthetics in Chinese Adults NCT05793892 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Comparative Study of Adapalene Gel,0.3% Versus Tretinoin Emollient Cream, 0.05% for the Treatment of Photoaging NCT01406080 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study to Evaluate the Tolerability of a Topical Antibiotic and Retinoid Used in a Combined Regimen With a BPO Wash NCT00891982 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Double-Blind, Parallel-Group, Vehicle-Controlled, Multicenter Study Comparing Diclofenac Sodium Gel, 3% to Solaraze® Gel, 3% in the Treatment of Actinic Keratosis on the Face or Bald Scalp NCT02611804 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.