REFOCUS: A First-in-Human Study of Highly Selective FGFR2 Inhibitor, RLY-4008, in Patients With ICC and Other Advanced Solid Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticchemotherapypatientextensionqt
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsgrouppatientsevaluate theto evaluate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of E7090 in Participants With Unresectable Advanced or Metastatic Cholangiocarcinoma With Fibroblast Growth Factor Receptor (FGFR) 2 Gene Fusion NCT04238715 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Pemigatinib in Subjects With Advanced/Metastatic or Surgically Unresectable Cholangiocarcinoma Who Failed Previous Therapy - (FIGHT-202) NCT02924376 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Pemigatinib in Treating Patients With Advanced/Metastatic or Surgically Unresectable Cholangiocarcinoma Including FGFR2 Rearrangement NCT04256980 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Study of BGJ398 (Oral Infigratinib) in First Line Cholangiocarcinoma With FGFR2 Gene Fusions/Translocations NCT03773302 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• A Phase II, Single Arm Study of BGJ398 in Patients With Advanced Cholangiocarcinoma NCT02150967 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.