A Phase 1 Study of AZD9833 in Japanese Women With ER Positive, HER2 Negative Advanced Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-06-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcancerchemotherapyadvancedtumor
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsjapaneseopenlabelhypertension
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 140 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 1627 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• AZD9496 First Time in Patients Ascending Dose Study NCT02248090 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Biological Effects of AZD9833 in Women With ER-positive, HER2 Negative Primary Breast Cancer NCT04588298 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Orally Administered Amcenestrant (SAR439859) in Japanese Postmenopausal Patients With Advanced Breast Cancer (AMEERA-2) NCT03816839 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• Study Assessing Safety and Tolerability of AZD8931 Alone or in Combination With Paclitaxel in Japanese Patients. NCT01003158 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Phase I, Dose Study to Look at the Safety and Pharmacokinetics of AZD8835 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumours NCT02260661 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.