A Study to Investigate the Biological Effects of AZD9833 in Women With ER-positive, HER2 Negative Primary Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2uncontrolledeffectsheart
  Phrases that lowered it: participantpharmacokineticsparticipantsdiseasesdrugs
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 144 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1632 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 1 Study of AZD9833 in Japanese Women With ER Positive, HER2 Negative Advanced Breast Cancer NCT04541433 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• AZD9496 First Time in Patients Ascending Dose Study NCT02248090 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Study to Compare the Effects of AZD9496 vs Fulvestrant in Breast Cancer. NCT03236974 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Pharmacokinetic and Randomized Trial of Neoadjuvant Treatment With Anastrozole Plus AZD0530 in Postmenopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor Positive Breast Cancer NCT01216176 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• AZD4547 & Anastrozole or Letrozole (NSAIs) in ER+ Breast Cancer Patients Who Have Progressed on NSAIs (RADICAL) NCT01791985 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.