The Re-Prosper HF Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (56 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-12-31, after 2021-06-09 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartkidneyfailurecardiacdisease
Phrases that lowered it: healthaimgoutphysicalblood -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 181 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past trials: 659 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 659 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 181 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1081 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 83 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 71.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 15.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- probenecid
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Repurposing Probenecid as a Positive Inotrope for the Treatment of Heart Failure NCT01814319 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Biomarker Guided Therapies in Stage A/B Heart Failure NCT02230891 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
- Study of Verinurad in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT04327024 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
- A Study of MK-7145 in Participants With Renal Insufficiency (Part I) and Heart Failure With Renal Insufficiency (Part II) (MK-7145-011) NCT01558674 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
- Study to Evaluate the Efficacy (Effect on Disease) and Safety of Finerenone in Participants With Heart Failure and Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction (Proportion of Blood Expelled Per Heart Stroke) Greater or Equal to 40% NCT04435626 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.