Biomarker Guided Therapies in Stage A/B Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (785 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: riskulndefinedmlcholesterol
  Phrases that lowered it: mmhgvisitsystolicclinical trialdiabetes
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 135 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Research Study to Look at How Ziltivekimab Works Compared to Placebo in People With Heart Failure and Inflammation NCT05636176 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of AZD4831 in Participants With Heart Failure With Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction > 40% NCT04986202 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Effect of Elamipretide on Left Ventricular Function in Subjects With Stable Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT02788747 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Phase Ib/IIa Trial With AC01 in Patients With HFrEF NCT05642507 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Changes in NT-proBNP, Safety, and Tolerability in HFpEF Patients With a WHF Event (HFpEF Decompensation) Who Have Been Stabilized and Initiated at the Time of or Within 30 Days Post-decompensation (PARAGLIDE-HF) NCT03988634 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.