A Research Study to Look at How Ziltivekimab Works Compared to Placebo in People With Heart Failure and Inflammation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-09-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartequal tofailuregreater thanventricular
  Phrases that lowered it: visitscreeningindexthe investigatormass
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 798 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 82 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of AZD4831 in Participants With Heart Failure With Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction > 40% NCT04986202 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Biomarker Guided Therapies in Stage A/B Heart Failure NCT02230891 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Effect of Elamipretide on Left Ventricular Function in Subjects With Stable Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT02788747 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• A Study to Learn How Safe Study Drug BAY2413555 is, How it Affects the Body, and How it Moves Into, Through, and Out of the Body Over 4 Weeks of Use in Participants With Heart Failure and Implanted Cardiac Defibrillator or Cardiac Resynchronization Devices (ICD/CRT) NCT05532046 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Phase Ib/IIa Trial With AC01 in Patients With HFrEF NCT05642507 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.