Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of AZD4831 in Participants With Heart Failure With Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction > 40%

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicm2to screening30kg
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantevaluate thepatientsto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1674 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 174 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Research Study to Look at How Ziltivekimab Works Compared to Placebo in People With Heart Failure and Inflammation NCT05636176 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Phase Ib/IIa Trial With AC01 in Patients With HFrEF NCT05642507 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability Study of AZD4831 in Patients With Heart Failure. NCT03756285 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
• Changes in NT-proBNP, Safety, and Tolerability in HFpEF Patients With a WHF Event (HFpEF Decompensation) Who Have Been Stabilized and Initiated at the Time of or Within 30 Days Post-decompensation (PARAGLIDE-HF) NCT03988634 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• A Study of Mavacamten in Participants With HFpEF and Elevation of NT-proBNP With or Without Elevation of cTnT NCT04766892 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.