Avelumab Plus Cetuximab in Pre-treated RAS Wild Type Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: braincellvirustransplantationmetastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: maleasthmaadministration ofsingletype
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Avelumab and Cetuximab in Combination With FOLFOX in Patients With Previously Untreated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer - The Phase II AVETUX-CRC Trial. NCT03174405 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Standard of Care Alone or in Combination With Ad-CEA Vaccine and Avelumab in People With Previously Untreated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer QUILT-2.004 NCT03050814 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy of Avelumab in Small Intestinal Adenocarcinoma NCT03000179 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• AVELUMAB and CETUXIMAB and mFOLFOXIRI as Initial Therapy for Unresectable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients NCT04513951 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Cetuximab in Third Line for Mutant APC, TP53 and RAS Patients With Refractory Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT04853043 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.