Study of AZD1222 for the Prevention of COVID-19 in Japan
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (118 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-11-22, after 2020-08-23 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: disorderrandomizationto determinecellsyndrome
Phrases that lowered it: vaccineparticipantparticipantsagedmild -
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1622 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 137 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 29 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1622 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 137 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 29 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 12 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 3.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- azd1222
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase III Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study of AZD1222 for the Prevention of COVID-19 in Adults NCT04516746 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Phase II/III Study of AZD2816, for the Prevention of COVID-19 in Adults NCT04973449 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Global Phase III Clinical Trial of Recombinant COVID- 19 Vaccine (Sf9 Cells) NCT04904471 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Study in Adults of AZD1222 and rAd26-S Administered as Heterologous Prime-Boost Regimen for the Prevention of COVID-19 NCT04684446 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Immunogenicity and Safety of Booster Immunization of COVID-19 Vaccine (Vero Cell), Inactivated (Omicron Variant) in Healthy People Aged 18 Years and Above NCT05381350 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.