A Phase 1B Study of Canakinumab, Spartalizumab, Nab-paclitaxel, and Gemcitabine in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer (PC) Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-02-27, after 2020-11-02 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticbrainpancreaticdiseaseimaging
Phrases that lowered it: patientsaminotransferaseulnmgdrugs -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 100889 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 100889 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 14408 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- canakinumab, gemcitabine, paclitaxel, spartalizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- The Seven Trial: Exploiting the Unfolded Protein Response NCT06076837 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Canakinumab With Chemotherapy, Radiation Therapy, and Durvalumab in People With Lung Cancer NCT04905316 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- Study of Nivolumab, Cabiralizumab, and Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy (SBRT) for Locally Advanced Unresectable Pancreatic Cancer NCT03599362 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
- Siltuximab and Spartalizumab in Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT04191421 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- SAR439459 and Cemiplimab for the Treatment of Advanced or Unresectable Solid Tumors, Strategic Alliance, TACTIC TRIAL NCT04729725 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.