A Study of Canakinumab With Chemotherapy, Radiation Therapy, and Durvalumab in People With Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-07-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientcellradiationeffectivecancer
  Phrases that lowered it: hepaticdisordersapplypatients whojoint
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 123 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 608 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 1B Study of Canakinumab, Spartalizumab, Nab-paclitaxel, and Gemcitabine in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer (PC) Patients NCT04581343 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Staggered, Chemo-Immunotherapy With Durvalumab, MEDI4736 Pemetrexed & Carboplatin (PC) for Metastatic Non-Squamous NSCLC NCT04163432 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Ascorbate With Durvalumab in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT06083454 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
• Sirolimus and Durvalumab for the Treatment of Stage I-IIIA Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04348292 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
• Neoadjuvant Nivolumab and Chemotherapy in Patients With Localized Triple-negative Breast Cancer NCT04331067 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.