Clinical Trial of Favipiravir Treatment of Patients With COVID-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-12-28, after 2020-10-07 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: dialysisheartendtime offailure
Phrases that lowered it: patients whothe efficacyand safetymaleefficacy and -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Maximum age: 74 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 74 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 15 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 82 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 74 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- favipiravir
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Favipiravir-HU NCT04940871 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
- Oral Favipiravir Compared to Placebo in Subjects With Mild COVID-19 NCT04346628 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Favipiravir Therapy in Adults With Mild COVID-19 NCT04464408 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
- Randomized Multicenter Study on the Efficacy and Safety of Favipiravir for Parenteral Administration Compared to Standard of Care in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 NCT05185284 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Favipiravir in High-risk COVID-19 Patients NCT04818320 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.