Single Low Dose Tafenoquine to Reduce P. Falciparum Transmission in Mali (NECTAR2)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-12-23, after 2020-10-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: acutechronicsevereinjurydefined
Phrases that lowered it: participantand safetyphysical examinationhistory physicalsigns -
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 175 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 12 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 50 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 175 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 30 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 41 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 9 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- piperaquine, tafenoquine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Gametocytocidal and Transmission-blocking Efficacy of PQ in Combination With AL and TQ in Combination With SPAQ in Mali NCT05081089 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Gametocytocidal and Transmission-blocking Efficacy of ASAQ and ALAQ With or Without PQ in Mali NCT05550909 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine With Low Dose Primaquine to Reduce Malaria Transmission NCT02259426 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Phase 2 Efficacy Study of Primaquine and Methylene Blue NCT02831023 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Pyronaridine-artesunate With Low Dose Primaquine for Preventing P. Falciparum Transmission NCT04049916 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.