Gametocytocidal and Transmission-blocking Efficacy of ASAQ and ALAQ With or Without PQ in Mali

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: acuteinjurychronicmspain
  Phrases that lowered it: participantand safetyexaminationdrugslaboratory
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 190 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Gametocytocidal and Transmission-blocking Efficacy of PQ in Combination With AL and TQ in Combination With SPAQ in Mali NCT05081089 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Single Low Dose Tafenoquine to Reduce P. Falciparum Transmission in Mali (NECTAR2) NCT04609098 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine + Mefloquine Compared to Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine or Artesunate-mefloquine in Patients With Uncomplicated Falciparum Malaria in Cambodia NCT02612545 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Dose Ranging Study of Ferroquine With Artesunate in African Adults and Children With Uncomplicated Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria NCT00988507 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• A Trial to Compare the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Combinations of 3 Anti-malarial Drugs Against Combina-tions of 2 Anti-malarial Drugs. NCT03923725 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.