SILtuximab in Viral ARds (SILVAR) Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-04-01, after 2020-11-13 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapyrandomizationinfectionstandardsyndrome
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofvaccinethe efficacy -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 12 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 12 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 6 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 190 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 79 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 66.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- siltuximab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy and Safety of Siltuximab vs. Corticosteroids in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 Pneumonia NCT04329650 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
- Silmitasertib (CX-4945) in Patients With Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) NCT04668209 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
- COVID-19-associated ARDS Treated With Dexamethasone: Alliance Covid-19 Brasil III NCT04327401 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
- Aviptadil for Severely Ill Inpatients With COVID-19 (An ACTIV-3b/TESICO Treatment Trial) NCT06729606 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- ACTIV-3b: Therapeutics for Severely Ill Inpatients With COVID-19 NCT04843761 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.