Evaluation of the Efficacy of Pirfenidone in Progressive Chronic Hypersensitivity Pneumonitis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (785 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-06-30, after 2019-12-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 53.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 36 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: pulmonaryefficacy of18ulceradult
Phrases that lowered it: the efficacyprogressivepatientsgrouptreatment -
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 51 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 51 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 36 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 18086 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4215 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 53.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- pirfenidone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Rituximab Therapy in Patients With Treatment Refractory Hypersenstivity Pneumonitis NCT07035561 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Clinical Efficacy and Safety of Pirfenidone in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT02136992 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Study of Efficacy and Safety of Pirfenidone in Patients With Fibrotic Hypersensitivity Pneumonitis NCT02958917 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy and Safety of Riociguat in Patients With Symptomatic Pulmonary Hypertension (PH) Associated With Idiopathic Interstitial Pneumonias (IIP) NCT02138825 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
- Open-label Study to Assess the Effectiveness of Pirfenidone in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF). NCT03208933 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.