A Study of LY3471851 in Adult Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis (UC)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 27% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-08-09, after 2021-03-22 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: tumorcancercolitisadvancedheart
Phrases that lowered it: participantsdrugdays beforehoursadult -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, digestive: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 17 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of OSE-127 vs Placebo in Patients With Moderate to Severe Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT04882007 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
- An Efficacy and Safety Study of LYC-30937-EC in Subjects With Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT02762500 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of Efavaleukin Alfa in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT04987307 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Efficacy of TJ301 IV in Participants With Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT03235752 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- Study of Cimzia for the Treatment of Ulcerative Colitis NCT01090154 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.