Biomarker Effects of ALZ-801 in APOE4 Carriers With Early Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimersubjects withadin subjectsdementia
  Phrases that lowered it: investigateand safetyefficacy andinclusivescreening
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Efficacy and Safety Study of ALZ-801 in APOE4/4 Early AD Subjects NCT04770220 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Long-term Extension of Phase 3 Study of ALZ- 801 in APOE4/4 Early AD Subjects NCT06304883 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network Trial: An Opportunity to Prevent Dementia: A Study of Potential Disease Modifying Treatments in Individuals at Risk for or With a Type of Early Onset Alzheimer's Disease Caused by a Genetic Mutation NCT06424236 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Azeliragon (TTP488) in Patients With Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT02080364 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• A Study of LY3202626 on Disease Progression in Participants With Mild Alzheimer's Disease Dementia NCT02791191 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.