An Efficacy and Safety Study of ALZ-801 in APOE4/4 Early AD Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimeradscoresubjects withdiagnosis
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningconductedprior togenotypetrial
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Biomarker Effects of ALZ-801 in APOE4 Carriers With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT04693520 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Long-term Extension of Phase 3 Study of ALZ- 801 in APOE4/4 Early AD Subjects NCT06304883 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network Trial: An Opportunity to Prevent Dementia: A Study of Potential Disease Modifying Treatments in Individuals at Risk for or With a Type of Early Onset Alzheimer's Disease Caused by a Genetic Mutation NCT06424236 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Azeliragon (TTP488) in Patients With Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT02080364 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ABT-126 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease on Stable Doses of Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitors NCT01549834 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.