Long-term Treatment of Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease (ADPKD) With Venglustat
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (181 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-07-13, after 2021-02-09 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 992 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 65 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: kidneyto determineenddoublesyndrome
Phrases that lowered it: participantvisiteffect ofthe effectparticipants -
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 992 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 65 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- venglustat
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Medical Research Study Designed to Determine if Venglustat Can be a Future Treatment for ADPKD Patients NCT03523728 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
- A Study of RGLS4326 in Patients With Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease NCT04536688 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- A Study of Epetraborole Tablets in Subjects With Degrees of Renal Function NCT05283746 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Effects of GLPG2737 in Participants With Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease (ADPKD) NCT04578548 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of DA-1229 (Evogliptin) in Patient's Calcific Aortic Valve Disease With Mild to Moderate Aortic Stenosis (EVOID-AS) NCT05143177 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.