Cognition Platform Study in Participants at Risk for Alzheimer's Disease (AD) (MK-0000-413)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: has historymriscreeningcognitivescan
  Phrases that lowered it: participantslongdrugdrugsstudy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1317 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 122 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 28196 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Multiple Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT05804383 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Pilot Clinical Study of CT1812 in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease Using EEG NCT04735536 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Effect of CT1812 Treatment on Amyloid Beta Oligomer Displacement Into CSF in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT03522129 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• A Study of Crenezumab Versus Placebo in Preclinical Presenilin1 (PSEN1) E280A Mutation Carriers to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety in the Treatment of Autosomal-Dominant Alzheimer's Disease (AD), Including a Placebo-Treated Non-Carrier Cohort NCT01998841 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of GSK4527226 [AL101] in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT06079190 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.