Open-label Trial in Parkinson's Disease (PD)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-12-01, after 2021-02-24 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: double blindnervous systemhourscentral nervouskey
Phrases that lowered it: open labelperiodthe investigatorvisitdiseases -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 222 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 222 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 100 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tavapadon
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Multiple-dose Trial to Determine the Clinical Bioequivalence Between Tavapadon Tablets in Participants With Parkinson's Disease NCT05610189 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Flexible-Dose, Adjunctive Therapy Trial in Adults With Parkinson's Disease With Motor Fluctuations (TEMPO-3) NCT04542499 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Flexible-Dose Trial in Early Parkinson's Disease (PD) NCT04223193 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Fixed-Dose Trial in Early Parkinson's Disease (PD) NCT04201093 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability Study of APL-130277 for the Acute Treatment of OFF Episodes in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT02469090 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.