Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Single and Multiple Ascending Doses of Palovarotene Ophthalmic Solution in Healthy Adult Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilityascendingmultipletolerability andand pharmacokinetics
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyscreeningadultmmhgformulation
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of PRX-100 in the Treatment of Early to Moderate Presbyopia NCT02554396 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Study of the Safety of USB005 in Healthy Volunteers NCT03615196 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Two Different Concentrations (0.5% and 1%) of Progesterone Topical Gel Compared to Placebo in Patients Diagnosed With Moderate to Severe Dry Eye Syndrome NCT04645446 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Research Study To See How Well An Eye Drop (SURF-200) Works, What Side Effects There Are, And To Compare It With Vehicle In Subjects With An Episodic Flare-Up of Dry Eye Disease NCT04734210 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of G01 Eye Drops in Healthy Volunteers NCT07779902 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.