Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Various Anti-inflammatory Agents in Participants With Mild Cognitive Impairment or Mild Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimersclerosisscorecognitivedementia
  Phrases that lowered it: participanteffectevaluate themildto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1411 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 47.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 152 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network Trial: An Opportunity to Prevent Dementia: A Study of Potential Disease Modifying Treatments in Individuals at Risk for or With a Type of Early Onset Alzheimer's Disease Caused by a Genetic Mutation NCT06424236 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Verify the Clinical Benefit of Aducanumab in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT05310071 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Aducanumab in Participants With Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease or With Mild Alzheimer's Disease Dementia to Evaluate the Safety of Continued Dosing in Participants With Asymptomatic Amyloid-Related Imaging Abnormalities NCT03639987 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Testing the Safety and Preliminary Efficacy of the New Drug ORY-2001 in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT03867253 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Crenezumab Versus Placebo in Participants With Prodromal to Mild Alzheimer's Disease (AD). NCT02670083 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.