Study of Efficacy and Safety of Twice Daily Oral Iptacopan (LNP023) in Adult PNH Patients Who Are Naive to Complement Inhibitor Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellfailurepatientsdiseasetherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsand safetyefficacy andsingle
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1394 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 139 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Single Arm, Open Label Trial With Iptacopan Treatment for 24 Weeks, in Patients on Stable Regimen of Anti-C5 Who Switch to Iptacopan. NCT05630001 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Phase III Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of HSK39297 in Patients With Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria Who Are Naive to Complement Inhibitor Therapy NCT06799546 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Dose-Escalation Study of ALXN1210 IV in Participants With Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria (PNH) NCT02598583 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Study of Safety, Efficacy, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of LNP023 in in Patients With Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria (PNH) NCT03439839 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• BCX9930 for the Treatment of Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria (PNH) in Participants Not Receiving Other Complement Inhibitor Therapy NCT05116787 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.