BCX9930 for the Treatment of Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria (PNH) in Participants Not Receiving Other Complement Inhibitor Therapy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-09-18, after 2021-10-26 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-09-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: priortransplantto screeningto determineplacebo controlled
Phrases that lowered it: the efficacyparticipantsefficacy andand safetysafety of -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 37 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- BCX9930 for the Treatment of Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria (PNH) in Participants With Inadequate Response to C5 Inhibitor Therapy NCT05116774 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
- Dose Escalation of BCX10013 in Participants with Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria (PNH) NCT06100900 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- A Phase III Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of HSK39297 in Patients With Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria Who Are Naive to Complement Inhibitor Therapy NCT06799546 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Study of Efficacy and Safety of Twice Daily Oral Iptacopan (LNP023) in Adult PNH Patients Who Are Naive to Complement Inhibitor Therapy NCT04820530 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of HSK39297 in Patients With Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria（PNH） NCT06561841 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.