A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of AD-208
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-06-01, after 2021-06-09 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientsadalopeciaphaseclassification
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andto evaluateevaluate thethe efficacy -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 50 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 14 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 10 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- To Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GT20029 Solution in the Treatment of Androgenetic Alopecia (AGA) in Chinese Adult Males NCT06692465 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Efficacy of PP405 in Adults With AGA NCT06393452 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of CTP-543 in Adults With Moderate to Severe Alopecia Areata NCT03137381 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Phase II Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of KX-826 NCT05940506 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Clinical Trial to Explore the Efficacy and Safety of DA-4001 After Topical Application NCT02280603 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.