Phase II Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of KX-826

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: monthspriorto screeningplacebotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whomaletopicalthe efficacyclinical study
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• To Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of KX-826 in Chinese Female Subjects With Androgenetic Alopecia NCT06409650 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Clinical Study Patients With Androgenetic Alopecia (AGA) NCT05135468 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• To Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GT20029 Solution in the Treatment of Androgenetic Alopecia (AGA) in Chinese Adult Males NCT06692465 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study of KL130008 in Adults With Severe Alopecia Areata NCT05496426 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of KX826 in Healthy Male Subjects With Androgenetic Alopecia Following Topical Single Ascending Dose Administration NCT04984707 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.