XEN1101 for Major Depressive Disorder

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-11-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: qtmonths aftermrilast doselong
  Phrases that lowered it: maledsmformdisorderhas history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Treat Major Depressive Disorder With a New Medication NCT03043560 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Study to Treat Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) With a New Medication NCT02149836 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of XEN1101 in Major Depressive Disorder NCT05376150 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of MIN-117 in Adult Patients With Major Depressive Disorder NCT03446846 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Proof of Concept Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of MIJ821 in Patients With Treatment-resistant Depression NCT03756129 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.