Vitamin D Regulation of Gut Specific B Cells and Antibodies Targeting Gut Bacteria in Inflammatory Bowel Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (81 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-07-01, after 2021-07-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientscellscellsmallbowel
Phrases that lowered it: aimcompare25historyadult -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 54.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 781 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 174 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 781 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 174 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 23656 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1756 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 54.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- vitamin d
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Vitamin D Supplementation as Non-toxic Immunomodulation in Children With Crohn's Disease NCT01046773 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials terminated
- Cholecalciferol Comedication in IBD - the 5C-study NCT04991324 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Bioavailability of Vitamin D in Children and Adolescents With Crohn's Disease NCT01692808 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- The Vitamin D in Pediatric Crohn's Disease NCT02186275 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
- Fundamental Modification of the Gut Microbiota in the Treatment of Refractory Crohn's Disease NCT02765256 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.