Study of M7824 and Paclitaxel Combination as a Second-line Treatment in Patients With Recurrent/Metastatic Gastric Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapycellsmetastaticsystemichours
  Phrases that lowered it: trialmmhgparticipantblood pressureasthma
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 95 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 507 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8066 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 64772 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Trial of Pembrolizumab With Trastuzumab and Chemotherapy in Advanced HER2 Positive Esophagogastric (EG) Cancer NCT02954536 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab and XL888 in Patients With Advanced Gastrointestinal Cancer NCT03095781 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Ph II Study of Pembrolizumab & Eribulin in Patients With HR+/HER2- MBC Previously Treated With Anthracyclines & Taxanes NCT03222856 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Bemcentinib (BGB324) in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Patients With TNBC NCT03184558 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• Ipatasertib + Pertuzumab +Trastuzumab in Advanced HER2+ PI3KCA-mutant Breast Cancer Patients NCT04253561 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.