BI-754091 and Afatinib for Refractory Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (BEAR Study)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-06-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorchemotherapytherapymetastaticcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: effectinvestigatorand safetyefficacy andpresence
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 5584 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial to Find the Safe Dose for BI 891065 Alone and in Combination With BI 754091 in Patients With Incurable Tumours or Tumours That Have Spread NCT03166631 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials terminated
• Phase II Trial of Pembrolizumab With Trastuzumab and Chemotherapy in Advanced HER2 Positive Esophagogastric (EG) Cancer NCT02954536 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• This Study Tests the New Medicine BI 754111 Alone or in Combination With Another New Substance BI 754091 in Patients With Advanced Cancer. The Study Tests Different Doses to Find the Best Dose for Continuous Treatment. NCT03156114 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Testing Afatinib in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Patients With Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Lung NCT03157089 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• BIBF 1120 + Docetaxel (Japan) in Patients With Advanced Non-small-cell Lung Cancer, Phase I NCT00876460 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.