A Study of LY3461767 in Participants With Chronic Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (318 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-05-09, after 2021-06-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartfailurechronicmoderateto severe
Phrases that lowered it: participantspharmacokineticsscreeningand safetysingle dose -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1409 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 174 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1409 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 174 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of LY3540378 in Participants With Worsening Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF) NCT05592275 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
- Ranolazine in Diastolic Heart Failure NCT01163734 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- A Phase IIb Study of AZD5462 in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure NCT06299826 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- Safety and Tolerability Study of XXB750 in Heart Failure Participants With Reduced or Mildly Reduced Ejection Fraction (HFrEF/HFmrEF) NCT05328752 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- QUantum Genomics Incremental Dosing in Heart Failure - QUID-HF NCT02780180 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.