Safety and Tolerability Study of XXB750 in Heart Failure Participants With Reduced or Mildly Reduced Ejection Fraction (HFrEF/HFmrEF)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (318 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-01-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartfailureejectionfractionacute
  Phrases that lowered it: participantto investigateinvestigate thedosesingle
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1441 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 173 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Proof of Concept and Dose-finding Study of XXB750 in Patients With Heart Failure NCT06142383 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• A Study of LY3540378 in Participants With Worsening Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF) NCT05592275 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of LCZ696 Compared to Valsartan, on Morbidity and Mortality in Heart Failure Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT01920711 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Safety & Effectiveness of Tovinontrine in Chronic Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (Cycle-1-REF) NCT06215911 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Safety & Effectiveness of Tovinontrine in Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (Cycle-2-PEF) NCT06215586 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.