Intra-discal Injection of Platelet-rich Plasma (PRP) Enriched With Exosomes in Chronic Low Back Pain

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (3,836 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebopainor equalrandomized doubledouble blind
  Phrases that lowered it: trialgradepatientsthe efficacyaccording
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Preliminary Efficacy Study of Mesenchymal Precursor Cells (MPCs) in Subjects With Lumbar Back Pain NCT01290367 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Preliminary Efficacy of IDCT, a Treatment for Symptomatic Lumbar Disc Degeneration NCT03955315 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate Rexlemestrocel-L Alone or Combined With Hyaluronic Acid in Participants With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT02412735 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Preliminary Efficacy of IDCT, a Treatment for Symptomatic Lumbar Intervertebral Disc Degeneration NCT03347708 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of CordSTEM-DD in Patients With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT04530071 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.