A PHASE 1B STUDY OF ZN-C5 IN CHINESE SUBJECTS

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsbreast cancermetastaticadvancedher2
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatemalesafetypatients
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Entinostat in Chinese Postmenopausal Women Patients With Locally Recurrent or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02833155 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of Evaluating TQB3912 Tablets Combined With Fulvestrant Injection±TQB3616 Capsules for Locally Advanced or Metastatic Hormone Receptor(HR)-Positive and Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Negative Breast Cancer NCT06851442 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
• Phase I Study of EOC202 Plus Paclitaxel in Chinese Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03600090 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Study of H3B-6545 in Japanese Women With Estrogen Receptor (ER)-Positive, Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Negative Breast Cancer NCT04568902 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Open-Label Study Evaluating the Safety and Tolerability of LJM716, BYL719 and Trastuzumab in Patients With Metastatic HER2+ Breast Cancer NCT02167854 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.