CONNEX-3: A Study to Test Whether Iclepertin Improves Learning and Memory in People With Schizophrenia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (422 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-11-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: schizophreniadsmmentaldisordersdementia
  Phrases that lowered it: the trialapplytabletsand safetyefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 658 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 90 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clinical Trial of Iclepertin Effect on Cognition and Functional Capacity in Schizophrenia (CONNEX-1) NCT04846868 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of Iclepertin Effect on Cognition and Functional Capacity in Schizophrenia (CONNEX-2) NCT04846881 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• This Study Tests Whether BI 425809 Together With Brain Training Using a Computer Improves Mental Functioning in Patients With Schizophrenia NCT03859973 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Effects of Eltoprazine on Cognitive Impairment Associated With Schizophrenia (CIAS) in Adults NCT01266174 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test Long-term Safety of Iclepertin in People With Schizophrenia Who Took Part in a Previous CONNEX Study NCT05211947 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.