Clinical Trial of Iclepertin Effect on Cognition and Functional Capacity in Schizophrenia (CONNEX-1)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (422 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: dementiadsmschizophreniamentaldisorder
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsthe trialapplyvisitparticipant
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 662 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 93 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clinical Trial of Iclepertin Effect on Cognition and Functional Capacity in Schizophrenia (CONNEX-2) NCT04846881 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• CONNEX-3: A Study to Test Whether Iclepertin Improves Learning and Memory in People With Schizophrenia NCT04860830 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate 3 Dose Levels of Luvadaxistat of Adults With Negative Symptoms of Schizophrenia NCT03382639 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• This Study Tests Whether BI 425809 Together With Brain Training Using a Computer Improves Mental Functioning in Patients With Schizophrenia NCT03859973 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Four Different Doses of BI 409306 Compared to Placebo Given for 12 Weeks in Patients With Schizophrenia on Stable Antipsychotic Treatment. NCT02281773 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.